The Baku-Ankara Axis: the Alliance with Türkiye
Published on 2026-09-24 · 4 min read
"One nation, two states" is a phrase repeated in Azerbaijan and Türkiye for decades, and it sounds like a slogan. Since June 2021 it also has a document.
For an investor, this alliance is probably the most stable element in Azerbaijan's foreign policy - and therefore the easiest to overlook.
The Shusha Declaration
On 15 June 2021, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Türkiye signed the Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations, during Erdoğan's official visit to Azerbaijan.
The location was chosen carefully: Shusha, in Karabakh, shortly after the second war. This was not a technical document but a political statement made in a symbolic place.
The declaration sets out a roadmap for cooperation across multiple areas - defence, economy and humanitarian affairs - and raises the relationship to the level of a declared alliance, not merely a partnership.
What it contains economically
The parties set goals of diversifying their economies and exports, creating joint production in promising industries, and developing more favourable conditions for mutual investment.
In practice:
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Azerbaijani exports to Türkiye, 2024 | $3.82 billion |
| Bilateral trade volume | over $5 billion a year |
| Free trade agreement | under negotiation |
A free trade agreement, if signed, would be the next step and would deepen economic integration considerably.
The historical context, briefly
The alliance was not born in 2021. It was built on a base that long predates it.
Turkish and Azerbaijani are closely related Turkic languages - close enough that speakers of one largely understand the other. That is not merely a cultural detail: it materially reduces business friction. Negotiation, contracting, managing a team - all are simpler without a language barrier.
Beyond that, Türkiye was the first country to recognise Azerbaijan's independence in 1991, and has supported its position in the conflict with Armenia throughout, including by closing its own border with Armenia.
What the Shusha Declaration did was not to create a relationship but to formalise one - turning a shared understanding into a document with mechanisms.
That is why it is more durable than other agreements in the region: it does not depend on the event that produced it.
The corridor connection
The declaration explicitly mentions the Zangezur corridor - the route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan across Armenia's southern Syunik province, and onward to Türkiye.
This is where the alliance turns from diplomacy into geography. For Türkiye, the corridor opens a direct land route to the Turkic world in Central Asia. For Azerbaijan, it closes the sovereign gap to Nakhchivan.
That explains why both countries push it so hard, and why Iran objects. We covered it in the TRIPP corridor.
Why this matters to an investor
First, stability. Unlike relations with the US, which are tied to a particular administration, and unlike the balance against Russia and Iran, which requires constant manoeuvring - the alliance with Türkiye survives governments and crises. It is the constant in Baku's foreign policy.
Second, capital and business flow. Cultural and linguistic proximity, alongside trade above $5 billion, produces a substantial Turkish business presence in Azerbaijan - in construction, retail, industry and services. That presence generates demand for housing, offices and services. We covered it in the Turkish buyers' guide.
And third, the energy channel. Most Azerbaijani gas to Europe crosses Türkiye through the TANAP pipeline. The alliance is not only political - it is infrastructural. We covered it in gas instead of oil.
What to keep in proportion
This does not make Azerbaijan an appendage of Türkiye. Baku runs an independent policy, and interests sometimes diverge - for instance regarding Russia, where Türkiye and Azerbaijan have different accounts to settle.
And it does not cancel risk. A strong alliance with one neighbour can complicate relations with others. The tighter the Baku-Ankara axis becomes, the more delicate the balance with Tehran.
And for a private investor it changes nothing directly. Not taxation, not property rights, not purchase procedures. The effect is on the economic backdrop, not on your contract.
The conclusion
The alliance with Türkiye is infrastructure, not an event. It will not make headlines, and it will not change the price of your flat next quarter.
What it does is make one of the geopolitical factors - arguably the most important one for Azerbaijan - predictable. In a market where political risk is a genuine consideration, one predictable factor is a value in itself.
Anyone wanting to compare areas and see where business presence concentrates can start with the neighbourhood comparison tool.
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